- Data as of
- 2026-08-22 PKT
The 20-second view
- Finding: Pakistan’s large-scale manufacturing grew 4.98% in FY2025–26, but the gain was uneven across industries.
- Mechanism: An industry’s effect on the aggregate depends on both its growth and its weight in the manufacturing index.
- Why it matters: The headline can hide which industries actually built the gain and which offset it.
- What could change the reading: June output fell 3.48% year-on-year and 6.08% month-on-month, so the next releases matter for judging whether end-period weakness persists.
The question this article answers
When Pakistan Bureau of Statistics reports that large-scale manufacturing grew, does that mean manufacturing improved broadly?
Not necessarily.
The FY2025–26 headline was positive, but the contribution table shows a much more uneven picture. Some industries added strongly to aggregate growth, others subtracted from it, and June ended weaker than the full-year number might suggest.
The evidence first
PBS estimates the Quantum Index of Manufacturing at 120.55 for July–June FY2025–26, with overall large-scale manufacturing growth of 4.98% compared with the previous year.
The largest positive contributions included:
| Industry | Contribution to FY2025–26 growth |
|---|---|
| Automobiles | +1.56 percentage points |
| Food | +1.21 |
| Garments | +0.91 |
| Petroleum products | +0.72 |
| Cement | +0.41 |
Several industries offset part of that gain:
| Industry | Contribution to FY2025–26 growth |
|---|---|
| Pharmaceuticals | −0.54 percentage points |
| Iron & steel products | −0.34 |
| Chemicals | −0.20 |
| Textile | −0.11 |
Verified fact: PBS reports overall FY2025–26 large-scale manufacturing growth of 4.98%, with the sector contributions shown above.
Named inference: The aggregate improvement was uneven. Reading only the 4.98% headline would miss the concentration of positive contributions and the industries that pulled in the opposite direction.
The mechanism
industry output change → industry weight → contribution to aggregate manufacturing growth
The bridge is:
industry output change → industry weight → contribution to aggregate manufacturing growth
A large growth rate does not automatically mean a large contribution. A sector with a smaller index weight can grow rapidly but still move the aggregate less than a heavier sector growing more slowly.
That is why the contribution column is often more informative than ranking industries only by their percentage growth rates.
What the headline can hide
The full-year number also hides timing.
PBS estimates the June 2026 QIM at 108.83. June output was 3.48% lower than June 2025 and 6.08% lower than May 2026.
So two statements can be true at the same time:
- manufacturing was stronger over the full financial year; and
- output weakened at the end of that period.
The first is a cumulative comparison. The second describes recent monthly momentum.
For PSX research, neither automatically establishes a company outcome. A listed company can have a different product mix, pricing environment, capacity utilisation, export exposure, financing structure or reporting period. Company filings remain the evidence for company-level conclusions.
Alternative interpretation
June’s weakness may prove temporary rather than the start of a softer manufacturing trend. One monthly observation is not enough to establish a durable reversal.
The alternative reading would strengthen if subsequent PBS releases show output recovering while the positive sector contributors remain broad enough to support the aggregate index.
Risks, limits, and falsifiers
- Data limitation: PBS labels the June 2026 QIM release provisional.
- Scope limitation: Large-scale manufacturing is an aggregate production index; it is not a direct measure of listed-company earnings.
- Alternative driver: Sector contribution can change as individual industries accelerate or weaken.
- Falsifier: Persistent improvement in subsequent monthly output would weaken the interpretation that June marked the start of softer momentum.
What to watch
Watch the next PBS large-scale manufacturing releases for two things: whether monthly output recovers from June, and whether the industries that drove FY2025–26 growth continue to contribute positively.
For a specific PSX company, then move to its own production, sales, margin, cash-flow and balance-sheet disclosures.
Method and calculations
This analysis uses the PBS provisional Quantum Index of Manufacturing release for June 2026, base year 2015–16.
The contribution figures are reported by PBS in percentage points. They should not be confused with each industry’s own percentage growth rate.
Periods used:
- Full year: July 2025 to June 2026 versus July 2024 to June 2025.
- Monthly year-on-year: June 2026 versus June 2025.
- Monthly month-on-month: June 2026 versus May 2026.
Figures are reproduced at the precision published by PBS.
Primary sources
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics. Summary of Provisional Quantum Index Numbers of Large Scale Manufacturing Industries (QIM) for June 2026. Published 18 August 2026. https://www.pbs.gov.pk/summary-of-provisional-quantum-index-numbers-of-large-scale-manufacturing-industries-qim-for-june-2026/
Related research
See the Sector Deep-Dives archive and the Equity Mechanism methodology/source-policy pages for the framework used to separate macro evidence from company-level conclusions.